Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 10.668646 13.148428 15.925579 19.244448 23.080129 27.351153 32.442935
2025-12-14 7.164603 10.307674 14.240644 19.426880 25.982023 33.885543 44.019266
2025-12-21 4.862154 8.010718 12.338845 18.516047 26.878499 37.568674 52.001754
2025-12-28 3.795602 7.011456 11.786086 19.037405 29.377594 43.176024 62.506285
2026-01-04 2.970983 6.127326 11.164610 19.256953 31.334726 48.055290 72.215889
2026-01-11 2.393299 5.479245 10.744030 19.637430 33.448043 53.175721 82.430440
2026-01-18 1.980675 5.006805 10.498448 20.203079 35.807325 58.706455 93.420127
2026-01-25 1.526497 4.321302 9.754250 19.834853 36.650857 62.028964 101.377968
2026-02-01 1.244350 3.907899 9.413514 20.069999 38.409957 66.742202 111.495442
2026-02-08 0.954928 3.380664 8.752403 19.640402 39.013788 69.687123 119.083381
2026-02-15 0.713493 2.879421 8.039064 19.004645 39.180934 71.911929 125.627202
2026-02-22 0.598244 2.678781 7.921711 19.467256 41.240712 77.191529 136.997045
2026-03-01 0.440948 2.295530 7.352804 19.042831 41.828488 80.338053 145.547887
2026-03-08 0.346013 2.069212 7.108782 19.254294 43.595925 85.540638 157.613299
2026-03-15 0.232645 1.693449 6.391317 18.351794 43.196726 87.074546 163.865122
2026-03-22 0.188572 1.575332 6.328492 18.869686 45.523270 93.329963 177.959871
2026-03-29 0.145931 1.428769 6.147441 19.087733 47.266634 98.640037 190.678644
2026-04-05 0.115241 1.317505 6.042425 19.465603 49.343251 104.610928 204.680268
2026-04-12 0.093406 1.237815 6.016242 20.027397 51.822451 111.389157 220.239503
2026-04-19 0.064350 1.067595 5.640649 19.661678 52.345513 114.657363 229.964845
2026-04-26 0.048558 0.975040 5.506733 19.895222 54.137119 120.295639 243.892467
2026-05-03 0.031722 0.834281 5.145640 19.468555 54.465492 123.229661 253.235833
2026-05-10 0.019041 0.695803 4.735817 18.837161 54.280037 125.171357 260.888822